Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-04

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-24) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-24 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-04-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-04-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-04-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-04-24 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-24)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-24) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 181 (144 – 214) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 12 (8 – 23)
Algeria 178 (145 – 212) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (10 – 65)
Argentina 156 (125 – 185) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 56 (17 – -40)
Armenia 102 (75 – 126) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.5) 15 (8.1 – 150)
Australia 14 (4 – 21) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.4) -71 (7 – -6)
Austria 69 (51 – 89) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 440 (15 – -16)
Azerbaijan 50 (31 – 66) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 17 (7.3 – -49)
Bahrain 133 (105 – 160) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 200 (17 – -20)
Bangladesh 657 (592 – 715) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 25)
Belarus 1031 (943 – 1107) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (17 – 39)
Belgium 631 (568 – 688) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -14 (-22 – -10)
Bolivia 119 (90 – 144) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 11 (6.8 – 27)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 72 (49 – 91) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 9.9 (5.9 – 30)
Brazil 6893 (6685 – 7109) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 13 (12 – 15)
Bulgaria 55 (35 – 71) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -41 (22 – -10)
Cameroon 96 (74 – 121) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 110 (15 – -21)
Canada 1899 (1800 – 2014) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 44 (27 – 120)
Chile 1153 (1062 – 1241) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.6) 8.4 (7.1 – 10)
China 5 (1 – 10) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.2 – 1.1) -7.1 (11 – -2.7)
Colombia 390 (345 – 440) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 15 (11 – 27)
Cote dIvoire 48 (32 – 65) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 51 (9.7 – -16)
Croatia 12 (4 – 20) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.4 – 1.2) -10 (15 – -3.8)
Cuba 53 (34 – 70) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 31 (8.9 – -21)
Czechia 69 (49 – 91) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -250 (16 – -14)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 53 (34 – 69) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 7 (4.4 – 17)
Denmark 158 (127 – 188) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -110 (29 – -20)
Djibouti 15 (6 – 24) Unsure 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -38 (8.9 – -6.1)
Dominican Republic 334 (288 – 378) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 12 (8.4 – 20)
Ecuador 985 (902 – 1058) Decreasing 0.6 (0.5 – 0.8) -7.1 (-19 – -4.4)
Egypt 331 (289 – 379) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (11 – 35)
Equatorial Guinea 6 (1 – 12) Decreasing 0.5 (0.2 – 0.8) -3 (-8.1 – -1.9)
Estonia 12 (4 – 20) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.2) -15 (11 – -4.4)
Finland 115 (91 – 141) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 100 (17 – -25)
France 1130 (1038 – 1209) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -29 (-87 – -17)
Germany 1402 (1304 – 1488) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -31 (-140 – -17)
Ghana 145 (115 – 171) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 14 (8.6 – 40)
Greece 22 (9 – 32) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -33 (10 – -6.3)
Guinea 94 (70 – 116) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 44 (13 – -31)
Guinea Bissau 50 (30 – 65) Increasing 2.1 (1.6 – 2.7) 4 (2.9 – 6.3)
Honduras 80 (53 – 99) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 8.1 (5.2 – 17)
Hungary 80 (57 – 103) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 130 (14 – -18)
Iceland 2 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.2 (0 – 2.5) -0.73 (0.26 – -0.15)
India 2479 (2349 – 2607) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 15 (13 – 19)
Indonesia 394 (341 – 440) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 48 (20 – -110)
Iran 1107 (1022 – 1184) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -710 (70 – -59)
Iraq 91 (68 – 113) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 9.9 (6.2 – 24)
Ireland 354 (304 – 400) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -13 (-21 – -9.3)
Israel 159 (130 – 187) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -18 (1100 – -9)
Italy 2228 (2109 – 2338) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -52 (-370 – -28)
Japan 289 (245 – 328) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -30 (170 – -14)
Kazakhstan 236 (199 – 276) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 13 (8.8 – 25)
Kosovo 11 (2 – 17) Decreasing 0.6 (0.3 – 0.8) -5.1 (-38 – -2.7)
Kuwait 320 (276 – 369) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 15 (10 – 27)
Kyrgyzstan 21 (9 – 31) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 26 (6.1 – -11)
Latvia 12 (3 – 19) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -50 (6.7 – -5.3)
Lebanon 6 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) -34 (4.2 – -3.3)
Lithuania 16 (6 – 24) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 30 (5.6 – -9)
Luxembourg 19 (8 – 29) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -120 (8.2 – -7)
Malaysia 87 (65 – 110) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 15 (7.8 – -2200)
Maldives 74 (52 – 94) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 1.9) 7.2 (4.8 – 14)
Mexico 1530 (1434 – 1625) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 16 (13 – 22)
Moldova 121 (91 – 145) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -32 (58 – -12)
Morocco 143 (110 – 169) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -95 (25 – -16)
Netherlands 492 (426 – 541) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -20 (-59 – -12)
New Zealand 2 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.4 (0.2 – 2.5) -0.97 (1.6 – -0.23)
Niger 9 (2 – 16) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) 70 (4.6 – -5.4)
Nigeria 244 (208 – 285) Increasing 1.5 (1.3 – 1.6) 8.4 (6.4 – 12)
North Macedonia 25 (12 – 36) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -42 (11 – -7.4)
Norway 45 (28 – 61) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -20 (35 – -7.7)
Oman 95 (70 – 118) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 120 (16 – -21)
Pakistan 1188 (1103 – 1270) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 15 (12 – 21)
Palestine 6 (1 – 11) Decreasing 0.6 (0.1 – 0.9) -2.8 (-12 – -1.5)
Panama 256 (213 – 295) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 24 (13 – 120)
Paraguay 38 (24 – 53) Increasing 2.1 (1.5 – 2.6) 3.9 (2.8 – 6.7)
Peru 3192 (3050 – 3336) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.3) 14 (12 – 17)
Philippines 267 (224 – 306) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 22 (13 – 91)
Poland 324 (276 – 370) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -100 (52 – -25)
Portugal 295 (250 – 334) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -15 (-27 – -9.9)
Puerto Rico 99 (76 – 122) Increasing 1.7 (1.4 – 2) 5.5 (4.1 – 8.2)
Qatar 840 (773 – 916) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 77 (31 – -160)
Romania 312 (262 – 349) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -100 (51 – -25)
Russia 8741 (8497 – 9025) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 16 (14 – 18)
Saudi Arabia 1524 (1431 – 1623) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 27 (20 – 44)
Senegal 87 (62 – 108) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 16 (8.3 – 300)
Serbia 245 (204 – 280) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 150 (25 – -36)
Singapore 726 (656 – 793) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -38 (-180 – -21)
Slovakia 6 (1 – 11) Decreasing 0.4 (0.2 – 0.7) -3.1 (-13 – -1.7)
Somalia 41 (26 – 56) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 48 (9.5 – -17)
South Africa 369 (320 – 412) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 13 (9.3 – 21)
South Korea 9 (2 – 16) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.6) -71 (5.8 – -5.1)
Spain 1188 (1101 – 1270) Decreasing 0.7 (0.6 – 0.8) -9.7 (-12 – -8.2)
Sri Lanka 25 (11 – 36) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -11 (130 – -5.1)
Sudan 78 (57 – 97) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 1.8) 7.1 (4.9 – 13)
Sweden 699 (630 – 759) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 53 (23 – -180)
Switzerland 152 (119 – 180) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -35 (61 – -14)
Thailand 7 (1 – 13) Decreasing 0.6 (0.3 – 0.8) -4.1 (-36 – -2.2)
Tunisia 10 (2 – 18) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -35 (6.5 – -4.7)
Turkey 2715 (2588 – 2844) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -160 (110 – -47)
Ukraine 577 (513 – 636) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 20 (12 – 66)
United Arab Emirates 633 (567 – 698) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 33 (19 – 130)
United Kingdom 5960 (5771 – 6176) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 27 (20 – 39)
United Republic of Tanzania 36 (19 – 49) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.7) 8.1 (4.5 – 37)
United States of America 33914 (33255 – 34405) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 40 (29 – 64)
Uzbekistan 51 (33 – 68) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 21 (8 – -32)